If memory serves, Apple has a worldwide market share ranging somewhere between 3 and 5% of all computers. However, the company’s recent moves will allow Apple to capture a good chunk of the consumer market (if it hasn’t already). On the other hand, I think that Apple will have a much harder time with the business market, which makes up a good chunk, if not the majority, of computer sales.

Apple for Consumers

For consumers, I think it is fairly easy to make a compelling case for buying an Apple computer. First, since the hardware and the software are fully under the control of one company, stuff just works (mostly). Second, since Apple has only a small share of the market and OS X has a better security model than Windows, as long as you don’t run Windows on your Mac, you don’t have to worry about spyware and viruses. As Apple gains momentum (and the user-base becomes ever more smug) this will change, but for now, OS X is safe. This eliminates a major headache for most consumers and extends the life of the machine. (Believe it or not, many users buy a new computer to eliminate problems caused by spyware and viruses.) Third, with the switch to Intel and the new pricing, Apple computers are now just as powerful as their PC counterparts. They are also competitively priced when compared to similar quality equipment (e.g., MacBooks vs. Thinkpads). All these features make a compelling case for first-time computer buyers to purchase a Mac. When my wife needed a computer, I suggested she by a MacBook, even though I am a longtime PC user.

For longtime PC users, the decision to switch is a bit harder. OS X is unfamiliar, and these users may have a myriad applications that are not available on the Mac. However, with the release of the Intel Macs and Parallels Desktop, this all changed. It is now possible to buy a Mac, run OS X to get all its benefits, and still run your old Windows applications. Yes, this does make that copy of Windows running in Parallels vulnerable to spyware, trojans, and viruses, but probably less so than a native Windows install. That’s because you most likely won’t be reading email and surfing the web under that Windows install. Furthermore, if you can use Microsoft Office for the Mac, you avoid many problems with Word macro viruses as well. Oh, and since Apple laptops now allow you to use two-finger taps on the trackpad to simulate a right click, interacting with Windows is no problem at all. Apart from inertia, and price (on the low end), I think that there is little reason not to buy a Mac even for PC users (unless you play games, but hopefully that will change in the near future).

All these factors combine to make Apple computers a compelling choice. Furthermore, as more users adopt Apple, there will be less and less need to use that copy of Parallels Desktop since there will be a native Mac app. Even game developers will come around if Apple captures enough of the consumer market. With 12% of all new laptops sales in the U.S. going to Apple, maybe we’ve already reached the tipping point, beyond which many application developers can no longer afford to ignore Apple. Microsoft will likely be the last hold out.

Apple for the Business World

Unfortunately, I think the consumer market is the low-hanging fruit for Apple. Don’t get me wrong, there is absolutely nothing wrong in tackling the easy stuff first. However, I think that Apple will have a much harder sell in the business environment. In fact, I think Apple will have to radically rethink its business model to compete in this space.

Businesses do not like to be beholden to a single vendor for anything business critical. Such a vendor essentially owns your company. They can raise prices, jerk you around, force you to update (if licenses expire), etc. and there is nothing you can do about it. Microsoft is in this position with many businesses already, and I’m sure businesses don’t like it. They continue to tolerate it because they see little choice.

The problem for Apple is that, from this perspective, they are worse than Microsoft. They control both the software platform and the hardware. One might argue that Apple will be forced to compete with PC vendors, since companies can always switch back, but that is an expensive proposition. Consider that a company’s employee base is trained on a specific system, with a specific set of, potentially custom, software. What if Apple has production problems and cannot ship machines in the quantity your business needs? What if your 3 new salesmen have to wait 8 weeks for a computer? There is no one else to turn to in a pinch.

In fact, the inertia, within a company, behind an existing platform makes it that much harder to convince a business to switch to Apple. Compound that by saying, “Oh yeah, and if you make the switch, Apple owns you in terms of both hardware and software.” and it makes a switch to Apple almost unthinkable. For my personal computer (since I maintain it myself), I’ll gladly switch to Apple as soon as those Merom laptops come out. But if I ran a company, I don’t want to be in a position where I must trust Apple to competitively price its hardware, to be fair in negotiating volume purchasing discounts, and never run short of supply.